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Madagascar: trouble in paradise

Antananarivo, Madagascar by Paul Melly

Antananarivo – itself marked by extremes of wealth and poverty – appears far detached from the deprived rural areas where most Malagasy live. The city’s political elite are consumed by factional manoeuvres and tussles over vested interests.

And even in the capital, the decayed state of national infrastructure is all too evident.

In hilly outer districts, vehicles gingerly pick their way round potholes that are axle deep. When it rains some streets become impassible. Wet season storms also bring power cuts by the widely despised Jirama, the chronically indebted national power and water company – much of whose revenue serves only to lubricate the patronage networks that underpin the political class.

Steering Madagascar to economic growth

Antananarivo, Madagascar by Paul Melly

For Hery the challenge is to find a way of shifting this trajectory and steering Madagascar onto a path of steady economic growth, job creation and tangible improvement in mass living standards.

His January 2014 inauguration speech signalled a break with Rajoelina and raised hopes that he recognised the need for fundamental change.

Since then he has managed a few tentative reforms, tightening up financial controls and replacing officials in some notorious state agencies.

But detailed practical policy ideas have been slow in coming, and scepticism about the president’s will or ability to achieve a real breakthough is growing. Decisive large-scale action has been absent.

Indeed, it’s uncertain whether Hery even recognises a need for transformation in the political culture. Some long-running scandals, particularly in the energy sector, have actually got worse.

Yet the IMF and international aid donors such as the European Union, African Development Bank and France, who restored aid last year [2014] are still cautiously willing to extend the benefit of the doubt, and maintain the flow of support to Madagascar. They are hoping against hope that Hery will slowly make progress.

He is the legitimate head of state. His election brought an end to almost five years of unconstitutional rule, during which the economy stagnated while poverty and corruption spread.

Among the Malagasy, the expectation that Hery could be the man who leads their country into a new era of steady progress is already fading.

But donors have little choice but to work with him. As one diplomat says, “He is the only president we have got.”

Yet already his rivals are back already on manoeuvres. Ravalomanana has flown back from exile without waiting for a government green light. And no one thinks Rajoelina’s ambitions have evaporated.

So after a first year in power that has produced few positive results, 2015 promises to be crunch time.

With aid money still on offer to help finance recovery, now is the moment that Hery has to start producing tangible improvements in the lives of the disillusioned Malagasy people.

Paul is an Associate Fellow of the Africa programme at Chatham House. He has expertise in French and EU Africa policy, development policy, grassroots development, development finance, and project and trade finance. He writes for, among others, the Economist intelligence Unit, Middle East Economic Digest, Africa Confidential, the Japan International Cooperation Agency and Sasakawa Africa Association.

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